UK’s assumption regarding French preparations and no-deal disruption

It was informed by BBC that it is being assumed by the government that the French preparations for regulatory and customs checks have strikingly decreased the expected disruption of trade no-deal Brexit.

It is being expected that the practical worst-case scenarios would lead to long disruption to about half the freight crossing the Channel.

However, the assumption regarding the basis for most of the no-deal planning of the government has been recently upgraded twice. These possible scenarios were told to industry, however, were not disclosed to the public.

In the previous year, the original reasonable worst-case scenario of the government for ‘no deal’ was that for coming 3 to 6 months, nearly 75 to 87 percent of the flow across the short straits would be disturbed and obligated to join queues on motorways approaching the ports and Channel Tunnel.

It was assumed by the assessment that the authorities of France will be checking every lorry which would come into its country without automation. As there weren’t any official talks or negotiations between the authorities, the officials of the United Kingdom had to use the photographs from the satellite to make an approximate of the potential for holding, as well as, processing facilities around French ports.

A few months back, this secret assessment which was kept a secret from the public via non-disclosure agreements, was improved to 50 to 70 percent of freight stopped.

The main reason behind this was the new preparations being made on the French side of the border. For instance, the Eurotunnel facility for the United Kingdom freight can check 9 lorries simultaneously and provides parking for up to a hundred vehicles.

In the last few days, there has been further down gradation of the possible disruption to trade flow in the short straits to 40 to 60% of traffic.